Government funding, institutional size, and student enrolment in public TVET institutions: evidence from Nairobi Metropolitan, Kenya

Abstract

This article examines the influence of government funding, specifically Higher Education Loans Board (HELB) loans and capitation, on student enrolment in public Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions in Nairobi Metropolitan, Kenya. Using longitudinal panel data from 2019–2023 across 12 institutions, the study analyzes how institutional size moderates the relationship between funding and enrolment. Results show that HELB, capitation, and institutional size jointly explain 66.9% of the variance in enrolment rates, with all predictors exerting significant positive effects. Larger institutions benefit disproportionately due to economies of scale and stronger absorptive capacity. The findings highlight the centrality of coordinated demand- and supply-side financing models in promoting equitable access to technical education. Policy recommendations include strengthening funding frameworks, expanding capacity in smaller TVETs, and improving administrative efficiency to maximize the impact of public financing.