A negative binomial regression analysis of road traffic Deaths in Nairobi

Abstract

The majority of people in Kenya travel by road, with a sizable portion of the population relying on various modes of transportation for daily commuting. Road Traffic accidents (RTAs), also known as collisions or crashes, happen when a car hits another car, a pedestrian, a road barricade, an animal, or any stationary object like a tree or electricity pole. (RTAs) are becoming common in Kenya and other African countries due to population growth and increased motorization. There are significant barriers to road safety in Kenya, as highlighted by the 2023 economic survey, which revealed an astounding 4,690 fatalities on Kenyan roads in 2022. The proposed study's goal was to analyze Road Traffic Deaths in Nairobi using a Negative Binomial Regression Model. The model was validated using the Pearson Chi Squared Statistics and the root mean square error. Majority of studies that have been conducted have analyzed the effects of weather parameters, road structure, and environment on traffic accidents; however, human factors like gender, age, and drug use are frequently interrelated when determining the death rate of an accident. The data used in the study was secondary between the period of 2017- 2023, derived from Traffic base commanders in Nairobi County, and National Transport Safety Authority (NTSA) accident data. The analysis revealed a decline in road fatalities from 2020 to 2023. The study found that drivers were responsible for the majority of fatal road accidents, with most occurring on Saturdays and Sundays. The cause of death coefficients were as follows: drivers (0.3645), pedestrians (0.4439), pedal cyclists (0.4914), and vehicle defects (0.5871). The study's findings are expected to contribute to enhanced road safety measures, guiding the development of better policies, rules, and interventions aimed at reducing the death toll and its adverse effects on Kenya's economy and society.