On The Variation Of The Probability Distribution Of The Future Life–time: A Case Of The Kenyan Mortality Experience

Abstract

A life table is an essential tool for valuing life insurance policies and it presents the probability distribution of the future life–time of a group of lives at the various ages. They are developed by the experts with actuarial knowledge. The life table will vary with the group of lives considered in the mortality investigation. Further the variation may also prevail when the same group of lives is investigated at different time periods, due to the effect of generational change in mortality. In this paper we apply statistical inference on published life tables for the Kenyan mortality experience for the mortality investigations performed during two separate disjoint time periods, to investigate significance of the variation in the mortality as the periods of the investigation vary. It is shown that the variation in the probability distribution of the future life–time for the Kenyan mortality experience is significant. Thus we confirm, as known in practice by the actuaries, that there is a need for continuous mortality investigations and the construction of the corresponding life tables, every after some time interval, to account for the variation in mortality as generations vary.