Modeling and mapping crime in Eastern Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract

This working paper provides a description of the phases of my PhD study. Drawing on assumptions from various theories of environmental criminology, this study applies various crime mapping methodologies to observe geographic and temporal patterns of crime in the eastern part of the Kenyan capital city, Nairobi. This paper outlines the first completed phase which employs criminal geographic profiling to predict offender abodes, and also briefly identifies the next two phases of the study that involve spatio-temporal analysis and a regression modeling respectively. Results from the completed study have potential implications on the prediction and ultimate reduction of criminality, both within the Nairobi capital and also in other cities with similar spatial patterns.