Effect Of Foreign Inflows On The Economic Growth Of East African Member Countries

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of foreign inflows on economic growth of East African Community countries. Three independent variables including foreign direct investment, personal remittance and external debt were reviewed to evaluate their effect on gross domestic product of EAC countries. The specific objectives for this study were to evaluate the effect of external debt on economic growth of East African Community countries, assess the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth of East African Community countries and investigate the effect of remittances on economic growth of East African Community countries. Theories applicable to the study such as debt overhang theory, internationalization theory and utility theory were reviewed. To accomplish the study objective, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares model was recommended based on model estimation performed for panel data of three countries using Hausman test and Breasch –Pagan LM tests. The target population sample size was three East African Community member countries that signed into the union in 1993 and they include Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. A panel data covering a period of 20 years from 1999-2018 was used. Rwanda and Burundi acceded the treaty agreement in July 2007 while South Sudan joined in April 2016. Data was obtained from World Bank’s African Development indicators, reports from bureau of statistics from each of the countries, data from central bank for each of the countries and information published on the website. This study concludes that foreign direct investment has significant impact on gross domestic product of East African Community Countries. Foreign direct investment therefore, is one of the foreign inflows that has an effect on economic growth of East African Community Countries. The results from this study also found the coefficient for remittance was positive but statistically insignificant. The results from this study found that external debt negatively affect the gross domestic product of East African Community countries. More studies would also be recommended to investigate the negative effect on gross domestic product for East African Community countries by external debt. Little or no research has been conducted to investigate the existence of debt overhang or debt crowding out effect specifically in East African Community countries. Further research is recommended as this would give more insights to East African Community countries on how to deal with external debts to avert the negative effect on economic growth and development.