Theses and Dissertations
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Item Effect Of Selected Macroeconomic Variables On Trade Balance In Kenya(KCA University, 2019) Gedi, Yussuf A.The subject of Trade Balance has drawn much attention and focus in recent years. The balance of payments records transactions that flow in and out of the country. Research has shown that macroeconomic variables including exchange rate, inflation and interest rate highly influence trade Balance.The study aimed at determining the effect of selected macroeconomic factors on the trade balance in Kenya. The specific objectives were to find out the effects of interest rate, exchange rate as well as inflation on trade balance in Kenya. The study was conducted in Kenya involving macroeconomic data between 1985 -2015. Data collected was purely secondary. The study adopted interest rate parity theory, purchasing power parity theory as well as balance of payment theory in articulating the synthesized concept under the study. The research design was descriptive in nature. The findings of the study was presented using graphs, professional tables as well as charts which was analyzed through time series regression analysis method and was enhanced by use of Eviews 9. The study found that real exchange rate and interest rate positively affects the balance of trade while inflation has a negative effect on the balance of trade. The finding is thereby important to the central bank, the Kenyan government, citizens as well as the scholars and academicians.Item Factors Influencing Public Debt In Kenya(Kca University, 2021) Owaga, Paul O.Public debt in Kenya continues to rise each year and now the country faces the possibility of plunging into a serious economic crisis due to inability of the government to repay what it owes. The purpose of this study was to investigate factors influencing public debt in Kenya. Specifically, the study sought to determine the influence of budget deficit, official development assistance, balance of trade and economic growth on public debt in Kenya. The study was anchored on the political business cycle theory, public choice theory and Ricardo’s theory on public debt. This study adopted a historical time series research design. The study was based on Kenya and data was collected quarterly for 20 years starting in year 2000 to 2019. A time series regression model was applied to analyze the collected data. This section provides the summary of the study findings. The summary is provided in relation to the research objectives. Regarding budget deficit, the study findings indicated that the first lag of budget deficit had a significant positive effect on public debt (β = 0.54, p = 0.009). The study findings also determined that the first lag of ODA did not have any significant influence on public debt (β = -0.15, p = 0.591). Concerning balance of trade, the findings showed that the first lag of balance of trade had a significant negative effect on public debt (β = -0.45, p = 0.008). However, the study findings indicate that the first lag of economic growth did not have any significant influence on public debt (β = -0.002, p = 0.971). Considering the findings made in the study, the study makes some vital recommendations. The governments should ensure that budget deficit is returned to sustainable levels and fiscal discipline observed. Regarding ODA, the government of Kenya should seek more multilateral and bilateral cooperation with development partners so that to enhance ODA as a large proportion of financing government recurrent and development expenditure. Further, the government of Kenya should enhance its balance of trade through expenditure-reduction measures that are intended to limit expenditure on imports and regulate demand, by putting downward pressure on demand, and thereby promoting private sector and household saving. Lastly, the study recommends stimulation of key sectors that contribute significantly to the economic growth such as agriculture, technology and manufacturing.